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Criterion
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Paper illustration of a two-by-two Ansoff Matrix with four growth directions
Business Strategy
Ansoff Matrix
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Purposedifferent
A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.The Ansoff Matrix organizes growth options by market and product relation. It helps weigh expansion, diversification, and adaptation cleanly against each other.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowLow
Timedifferent
1-4 h or multiple rounds45-90 min1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
4-12 Experten2-8Nutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus NotesAnsoff Matrix, Growth Options, Risk NotesInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note
Tagsno overlap
EstimationExpertsForecasting
GrowthStrategyMarketPortfolio
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping