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Criterion
Paper illustration for Waste Analysis.
Operations
Waste Analysis
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Purposedifferent
For a process that keeps people busy but creates little value, the method exposes waste. It directs attention to unnecessary movement, waiting times, rework, and overdelivery.The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumMedium
Timedifferent
45-120 min60-120 min15-45 min
Participantsdifferent
2-82-81-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Waste Map, Prioritized Waste, Improvement BacklogConflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes
Tagsno overlap
WasteLeanProcess improvement
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree