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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-10 | 3-12 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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