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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-10 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | ForecastingFlowDelivery | SensemakingDecisionRationale |
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