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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-10 | 6-30 Experten | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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