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Criterion
Value Stream Mapping workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Delivery
Value Stream Mapping
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighMedium
Timedifferent
1-3 h1-4 Wochen45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
4-106-30 Experten2-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck listExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
LeanFlowWasteDelivery
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test