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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-10 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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