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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Operations Root Cause Analysis |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When a problem keeps recurring and the cause stays unclear, the method exposes the underlying mechanism. It separates symptom, guess, and robust explanation from one another. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 h | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Problem Statement, Cause Hypotheses, Confirmed Causes, Action Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Root causeProblem solvingQualityIncident | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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