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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLow
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item20–45 min5-20 min
Participantsdifferent
1-8Small cross-functional group3-20
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
EstimationEffortRisk
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method