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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 15-45 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
