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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration for PDCA Cycle.
Operations
PDCA Cycle
Value Stream Mapping workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Delivery
Value Stream Mapping
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode.When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item1 h bis mehrere Wochen1-3 h
Participantsdifferent
1-81-84-10
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesPDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard ChangeCurrent-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
Continuous improvementLeanExperiments
LeanFlowWasteDelivery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Paper illustration for Kaizen Event.
Operations
Kaizen Event