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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Gemba Walk workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Gemba Walk
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication.When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighLow
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item30-90 min Setup, danach laufend30-120 min
Participantsdifferent
1-81-82-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesForecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk CommunicationObservation Notes, Improvement Ideas
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
ForecastingFlowDelivery
LeanObservationProcessOperations
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Value Stream Mapping workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Delivery
Value Stream Mapping
A3 Problem-Solving workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
A3 Problem Solving
Paper illustration for Kaizen Event.
Operations
Kaizen Event