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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations ALPEN Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 10-20 min daily |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 1 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations |
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