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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 2-8 h | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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