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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 30-60 min | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-10 | 2-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | EstimationForecastingFlow |
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