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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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