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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 45-90 min | 2-8 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations |
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