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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
A3 Problem-Solving workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
A3 Problem Solving
Value Stream Mapping workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Delivery
Value Stream Mapping
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together.When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible.
Complexitysame
MediumMediumMedium
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item45-90 min1-3 h
Participantsdifferent
1-82-54-10
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesA3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause AnalysisCurrent-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations
LeanFlowWasteDelivery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Gemba Walk workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Gemba Walk