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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Theory of Change |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Theory of Change translates a desired impact into a traceable chain of change. It makes assumptions, intermediate goals, and measurement points visible before a program is rolled out at scale. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-6 h | 60-120 min | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 3-10 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Theory of Change Map, Assumptions, Outcome Measures | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan |
Tagsno overlap | ImpactOutcomesSystems thinkingStrategy | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight |
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