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| Criterion |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-5 Tage | 10-30 min je Item | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | Nutzertraffic | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |
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