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Criterion
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Purposedifferent
When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.
Complexitysame
LowLow
Timedifferent
1-5 Tage20–45 min
Participantsdifferent
NutzertrafficSmall cross-functional group
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log
Tagsno overlap
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing