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Criterion
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMedium
Timedifferent
1-5 Tage5-20 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
Nutzertraffic3-202-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
EstimationEffortRisk
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing