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Criterion
Paper illustration of Shape Up with its method-specific working model.
Delivery
Shape Up
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Purposedifferent
Shape Up helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow. It makes work boundaries and decisions explicit and captures results as pitches, bet-table decisions, and hill charts.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
6 Wochen Cycle + 2 Wochen Cool-Down45-60 min1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
2-4 pro Pitch2-8Nutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Pitches, Bet-table decisions, Hill charts, Cooldown outcomesAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note
Tagsno overlap
PlanningDeliveryAutonomy
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing