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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 10-30 min je Item | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tags1 shared | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |
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