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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 20–45 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | Small cross-functional group | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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