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Criterion
Scenario Planning method illustration showing its working structure
Business Strategy
Scenario Planning
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
HighLow
Timedifferent
0.5-2 Tage45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
4-122-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust OptionsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
StrategyUncertaintyPlanning
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Business Model Stress Test with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Business Model Stress Test