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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 45-60 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 2-8 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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