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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLow
Timedifferent
20–45 min1-3 h1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group3-8Nutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopAsync
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logFailure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response ActionsInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
FailureResilienceRisk
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing