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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitysame | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 5-20 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 3-20 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | EstimationEffortRisk | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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