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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 45-90 min | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tags1 shared | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |
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