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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 45-90 min | 2-8 h |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan |
Tags1 shared | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations |
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