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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Decision Tree method illustration showing its working structure
Decision Making
Decision Tree
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMedium
Timedifferent
20–45 min45-90 min30-90 min
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group2-81-6
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanDecision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List
Tags1 shared
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
DecisionTreeOptions
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis