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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Systems Thinking System Dynamics Simulation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | System Dynamics Simulation makes assumptions about time, delay, and feedback testable through experiments. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a simulation model and scenario reports. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 45-60 min | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 1-5 Modellierende, Stakeholder asynchron |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Simulation Model, Scenario Reports |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | Systems thinkingDynamicsSimulationAnalysis |
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