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Criterion
Paper illustration for Planning Poker.
Agile
Planning Poker
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Purposedifferent
When estimates within the team diverge too much, it puts differing expectations on a common test bench. It separates rough complexity from unspoken assumptions.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.
Complexitysame
LowLowLow
Timedifferent
2-5 min je Item45-90 min5-20 min
Participantsdifferent
3-92-83-20
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Relative Estimates, Assumption Notes, Split CandidatesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets
Tagsno overlap
EstimationAgileRelative sizingTeam
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
EstimationEffortRisk
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Affinity Estimation.
Agile
Affinity Estimation
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping