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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Operations 5 Whys |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 15-30 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Root cause notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationExpertsForecasting | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving |
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