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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  DevOps Incident Timeline Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | For an incident with an unclear sequence, the method makes the timeline precisely visible. It separates perception, reaction, and delay so cause and effect become more clearly readable. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item | 60-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 3-10 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Incident Timeline, Evidence Log, Delay Analysis, Improvement Actions |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | IncidentTimelineSite Reliability Engineering |
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