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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Test Card |
|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 20-35 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-5 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Test Card with a pre-set threshold |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |
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