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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Operations Root Cause Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When a problem keeps recurring and the cause stays unclear, the method exposes the underlying mechanism. It separates symptom, guess, and robust explanation from one another. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-5 Tage | 1-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Problem Statement, Cause Hypotheses, Confirmed Causes, Action Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | Root causeProblem solvingQualityIncident |
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