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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Pretotyping |  Innovation Lean Startup |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Pretotyping clarifies whether a customer problem and solution idea create enough real demand. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence, and captures the result as a pretotyping sketch, test setup, and conversion data. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | Stunden bis wenige Tage | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-4 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Pretotyping sketch, Test setup, Conversion data, Go or no-go decision | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ValidationDemandMVP | LeanStartupValidationMVP |
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