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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | laufend | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-12 | 3-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationForecastingFlow | RiskRoot causeSafety |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
