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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 2-4 h | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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