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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-3 h | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | FailureResilienceRisk | SensemakingDecisionRationale |
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