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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 5-20 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-20 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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