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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ForecastingFlowDelivery |
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