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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations Root Cause Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When a problem keeps recurring and the cause stays unclear, the method exposes the underlying mechanism. It separates symptom, guess, and robust explanation from one another. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-90 min | 1-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Problem Statement, Cause Hypotheses, Confirmed Causes, Action Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Root causeProblem solvingQualityIncident |
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