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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-90 min | 2-8 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations |
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