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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Dual-Track Agile |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-90 min | Laufend, Wochen bis Monate |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 4-10 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Discovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte Stories |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | AgileDiscoveryDelivery |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
