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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Growth A/B Testing |  Innovation Lean Startup |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | LeanStartupValidationMVP |
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