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Criterion
Paper illustration for NoEstimates.
Agile
NoEstimates
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Purposedifferent
When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowHigh
Timedifferent
laufend20–45 min1-4 h or multiple rounds
Participantsdifferent
2-12Small cross-functional group4-12 Experten
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing RulesRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logEstimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationForecastingFlow
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
EstimationExpertsForecasting
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Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation