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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Operations Gemba Walk |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | laufend | 15-45 min | 30-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Observation Notes, Improvement Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | LeanObservationProcessOperations |
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